-   Coach Herman Boone (Denzel Washington, Remember the Titans)      

Titans was as it should be – an unabashedly sentimental movie laced with emotion as the legendary racially integrated Virginia high school team struggled, and achieved, perfection on the field.  It’s sappy, and we know it, but do not care.  We cannot help ourselves – we embrace the characters in the film, and happily take the man card point deductions for watching a Disney film.  After all, it was based on events that happened, we tell ourselves.  As college football fans, we want to be emotionally connected, and as close to an active participant in the competition as the law and the zebras allow.  A few of us are rabid enough to believe we actually impact the game outcome from seat number 19, row 29, Section 16, and on occasion, in fact we do, with a huge assist from the Auburn student section.  I maintain to this day that collectively some of us willed Auburn through our television screen to at least two of the three pick sixes in the 1994 Auburn stunner over LSU (which fate and twin babies prevented me witnessing live). 

Yet there has always been, and remains, a curious strain of football fan, and they can be found even in small circles of the Auburn Family.  We’ll call him Joe Mizoorah, as in “show me”, not as in those other Tigers.  A rugged realist, he clings mightily to logic, talking head and sports journalist opinions, numerical power ratings rankings, and that unkind ally of realists, history. 

There is nothing so wrong with Joe Mizoorah, and he’s just as entitled to approach a college football Saturday his way as any fan.  It’s just that there’s nothing so inspiring about him either.  Let’s face it, he’s “that guy” you do not especially want to sit by in Jordan-Hare and endure the “Oh, no, here we go again” utterances.  In the deep south sense of the word, it’s even difficult to think of him as a “fan”.  Fortunately on game day, there are very few Joe Mizoorah’s in Jordan-Hare stadium.  And the bigger the game, the fewer the Joe’s.  The Auburn faithful are if nothing else, a people of fandom faith.

The Mizoorahn fan segment would have scoffed at a preseason pick of the 2004 Auburn Tigers to run the table after the failed NallsMinger experiment which was indeed “offensive”.   And rightly so, they would have giggled at the even more improbable undefeated run in 1993 following a year of misery and the resignation of a head coaching legend.  By logic, there were simply not enough data points, and zero history, supporting such a long shot forecast, with the archenemy Tide coming off an undefeated national championship season (sound familiar?).  Expect a lot and be disappointed, and endure an offseason of shame being dubbed an unmanly sunshine pumper.  So goes the psychology, and without question, it is gentler on the frayed psyche and oft-broken heart of any college football fan to enter seasons with more hope than expectation.  If things go south through a series of unfortunate accidents (scooter driving quarterback pun intended), you have the solace of declaring, “Well, about what I expected.  Like I told you guys.” 

But you also get what you asked for – a completely sterilized, sanitized, and satellite TV experience of the unfolding season.  Give me the Cool Hand Luke fan psychology.  Pulling off a very unlikely bluff in a prison cell poker game, Luke observes that “Sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand,” and cell mate bully DragLine then dubs him “Cool Hand Luke”.

Today, as we sit on the adrenalin-charged eve of the Auburn Tigers 2010 season opener, a high holy day in the Auburn Family, there is reason to be confident.  If he studies well, and takes a deeper look at the assets available to Coach Chizik, even Joe Mizoorah can perk up a wee bit. 

In the winner take all five card stud poker game that is the 2010 season, Coach Chizik has been dealt a winning hand.  Not a royal flush, which has a .0015% probability of being drawn by any player, but far more than Cool Hand Luke’s “nothing hand”.  He hasn’t drawn a “made hand” like the Tide has allegedly drawn (despite flying in the face of history with their defensive and special teams talent losses).  His hand is incomplete, and he will have to draw an outcard or two to rake up the chips and head to Atlanta on December 4, 2010.  But this is a game he can win with an electric combination of unorthodox gambles and cocky bluffs, timely personnel deployment, and a sexy smile or two from Lady Luck, who is glancing flirtatiously at Coach Chizik as we speak.

Since Nostradamus has left the building, we’re left with educated guesswork here on the Tigers’ way to Atlanta, so here is this writer’s forecast for sunny skies.  Coach Chizik’s assets are numerous if deployed properly.

• Even year magic.  This sets up as a potent wild card that will be dealt to the Tigers in the form of a hungry and revved up Auburn fan base, in a deafening Jordan-Hare.  Every formidable opponent save Alabama, and possibly Kentucky, must enter Jordan-Hare and take a tough road win.
• A powerful, cohesive offensive line.  It is time to cash in on this asset, and 2011 brings some degree of rebuilding here.
• Low pressure psychology.  This coaching staff has every reason to plan, and pull the trigger on, calculated and even unorthodox risks in games.  In some games, Auburn’s talent will simply overwhelm the opponent, so risk taking can be low.  In the “go either way” games, advantage Chizik.  Plan and execute a series of surprise elements in game strategy and play calling which break tendencies yet build on the base system, especially on defense.  In Super Bowl XLIV, New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton opened the second half of the Super Bowl with arguably the most unorthodox and “out of the box” play in Super Bowl history – an onside kick.  The scrum ensued, and the Saints emerged with the ball, going on to take a 13-10 lead in the game.  What fans forget is that Payton had the cohones to make the call even after a high-risk play blew up in his face just before the half.  Tough and gutty calls at the right time in big games is what distinguishes good from great coaches.
• Explosive offense.  Auburn fans, add this beautiful word to your vocabulary, because this year the SEC will see it force actions and reactions by defensive coordinators – pace.  This season, Coach Chizik will have one or more games which will rattle our Auburn ancestors, they of the defensive minded, 13-7 style victory.  Not that it is the preferred way to win, but the Malzahn offense may have to pace the intestines out of some defenses, and win a 41-38 style shootout.  I, for one, will not roll Toomer’s Corner with any less vigor.
• Unheralded veterans who take over a game.  If you have been watching closely, you should have noticed a veteran player name or two mentioned in glowing terms.  This is a wild card in the poker game for Coach Chizik.  Zach Clayton comes to mind most prominently, and he has been described by a teammate as “. . . just throwing offensive players aside”.  On the defensive side of the ball, I would add Antoine “Hot Boy” Carter and Nick Fairley as veterans to watch.  There will be a big game in which one of these hungry players channels his inner Chuck Norris and absolutely dominates, wreaking havoc on the opposing backfield.
• The best placekicker in the SEC.  Wes Byrum will be turned to in a nailbiting finish in an SEC battle to nail a 45 yard + game winner.  I would not bet against him.
• Not your typical freshman class.  To the victor go the spoils.  Seldom has Auburn enjoyed such a celebrated, deep, and in the case of 12-15 of the true freshmen, SEC-ready signing class.  Obviously, there will be development game by game, and growing pains, but excellent coaching can utilize game situation substitution and personnel groupings to keep the liability from being costly to a victory.  By midseason, this group should provide not only quality depth that was missing on defense in 2009, but a lethal arsenal of skill players.

A final word to our true freshmen who will have the opportunity to tilt the cards in Auburn’s favor this Fall.  If life were fair, you would have a year or two to work in the weight room, soak up all there is to enjoy about college life, and contribute somewhere close to goose-egg on the field in 2010.  Some of you would have an ”average” year, and deserve no criticism.  Freshmen only infrequently contribute at a high level in SEC competition. 

There is only one problem.  This season cannot be fair.  Hear the words of Coach Boone, and strap it on.  We’ve got your backs at Jordan-Hare, and you’re more ready than you realize.

Let’s get it on!  Not in 2011.  Now.

In under 18 days, football fans across the fruited plains, and with a passion uniquely intense in these parts, will gather around satellite televisions and tailgates to kick off a season of hope for the elusive joy of a championship season.  But for a moment, go back in time with me to 2003, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and a war hero you will no doubt recall for his innovative Auburn spirit that brought a smile to us even amid the horrors of war.

Most of you will easily retrieve from your memory bank our own native son from Birmingham, Alabama, USMC Sgt. Ian Hogg.  Like our many brave marines and troops, Sgt. Hogg was also uniquely innovative – even in the heat of combat.   Operation Iraqi Freedom was war, and war is hell – but Ian, like so many of our troops, nonetheless found a way to stay spirited and even lighthearted.  In a stroke of orange and blue genius, he proudly flew an Auburn flag above his military Humvee (Sgt. Hogg pictured below with his troops helping a wounded Iraqi enemy combatant; Auburn flag in the background).

When media photos of the Humvee with Auburn flag aloft hit, they were grabbed by media outlets back in Ian’s hometown of Birmingham, Alabama, including the front page of The Birmingham News.  Auburn fans (and even patriotic Bama fans) were abuzz with interest and pride, and couldn’t get enough information about Sgt. Hogg and his fellow marines.   Stories soon broke that Sgt. Hogg was not only a big Auburn fan, but was also smart enough to figure out that by flying such a recognizable image like the Auburn logo flag, his loved ones back home would be more likely to catch a glimpse of him in news reports. 

Following his tour of duty in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003, Sgt. Hogg returned to Birmingham, Alabama, hopeful of fulfilling his dream to complete his education at Auburn University.  Sgt. Hogg would come to know the power of what we mean by Auburn Family immediately.  Caught up in a delightful wave of fan spirit and patriotism due to the indelible memory of the Humvee with an AU flag, Sgt. Hogg was welcomed home as a celebrity and war hero.  He was invited as a VIP guest to the Chette Williams FCA charitable banquet in Birmingham, arriving in full marine uniform with his beautiful wife Misty on his arm.  For all who were there, including me, it was one of those Kodak moments to behold – war hero, Marine, with his girl on his arm.  That memorable night, Auburn dignitaries reported with indignation and chuckles that some meddlesome University of Alabama boosters had stepped forward with a scholarship offer for Ian to attend you know where.  An admirable, yet cheap publicity stunt, and an Auburn man like Ian was too smart to fall for it.  That night Auburn supporters announced to uproarious laughter that funding was in place for financial support of Sgt. Hogg’s proper education at his dream college, Auburn University!

Happily reunited with his wife, Misty, Ian would move to the Loveliest Village, enroll and begin work toward his degree from Auburn University.  Ian would soon be seen roaming the sidelines as a manager for the Auburn football team.  If you had been an Auburn fan and watched the whole Ian Hogg saga unfold, from the sands of Iraq, to Auburn,  you could only smile to see a war hero on our beloved field, in a much happier setting.  This, my friends, was an inspiring slice of Americana in the Loveliest Village.

Ian was very deservedly, “living large”.  Ian and Misty were blessed with two daughters, Bailey and Addyson.  Like a good southern sportsman,  Ian would take advantage of every opportunity to enjoy his passion for whitetail deer hunting, and his skill at stalking mature bucks would come to be the envy of no small number of fellow hunters including me. 

Today, Ian continues to enjoy life, laughter, and the joy of his life, Misty and their two beautiful daughters Bailey and Addyson (pictured below).  Yet, he also deserves the fervent prayer and support of a grateful nation, and of course of the Auburn Family, as he wages a courageous battle against ALS (Lou Gherig’s disease).  It’s probable, yet perhaps impossible to determine, that chemical exposure during the war in Iraq was a contributing factor in Ian’s ALS disease.  Ian, and all our troops who serve, do so gladly and without expectation of reward.  Yet, tragically, too many return home with the effects of war dogging them.

Besides your prayers, you can support our brother, Sgt. Ian Hogg, by participating in the fight against ALS.  Birmingham Auburn fans, or any others who can make it, mark your calendars to participate in the Walk to Defeat ALS at Vestavia High School on October 9, 2010!

Semper Fi, Sgt. Hogg!

Link here to find out more!

http://web.alsa.org/site/TR/Walks/AlabamaWalk?px=2758551&pg=personal&fr_id=6401

Postscript:  Sgt. Ian Hogg, only 28 years old, is part of a campaign, The Young Faces of ALS.  You can find this group on Facebook, or under Ian’s friends.  You can also check out www.ALS.net .   I spoke to Misty and Ian, and they emphasized that it is very important for people to know that the lack of funding is the main reason not one single therapeutic has been developed in the 70 years since Lou Gehrig’s disease was diagnosed.

Not in the cold of January shall the steel of the champion be forged, but in the suffocating August furnace, amid the clanging iron of the war room.  And he who shall rise victorious from the ashes of the southern wastelands in November shall be he whose spilt blood signs the forehead of the warrior as this testament:  we go not unto a field, but to a battleground.  Who shall be found worthy on this battleground?  What grizzled veteran is weary of waiting, and of the upward seep of mediocrity, and will rise up in anger to claim the prize?  What young and unheralded David shall heed the call to arms and slip the smooth and lethal stone in the pouch of his sling, destined for the vile head of Goliath?  Who shall pay the price of repetition, and press his body past the sting of death so that in combat, he shall scoff at death?

He does not practice, he trains for a death struggle as if defending homeland, wife, and children, and in fact, he is.  He drives on through pain, moved by the vision of defeat at the enemy’s hands from yesteryear, the sting of battle disgrace and the bowed heads of his people.

He who wears the blue jersey, and committed heart and soul to our cause, to right past wrongs and raise high the victor’s crown in the Loveliest Village.   The foundation hath been laid, and the world of conquest lay all before him.  Now shall be the time, for tomorrow is not promised.  Seize the mantel of glory today, and let the cry of victory rise up in the sweet Auburn air.  

Ready for war, men of Auburn, whether young or old. We proudly send you into battle, and shall enjoin the battle on the field of Patrick Dye, in the Loveliest Village in deafening roar. Ye shall put the War back in Eagle in brutality of defense, and invincibility of ground and air attack. We have not time for fear nor hesitation, only execution of a battle plan which is brilliant in its simplicity, and lethal in its unfolding.

Welcome, war of ages. We shall be ready. We are coming.

The current process of determining the mythical national champion is just that – mythical.  As Auburn blogger Will Collier forcefully put it, “The collected opinions of a bunch of media employees, whether here or in the AP or Harris polls . . . aren’t worth a cup of warm spit to begin with, and they certainly do not add up to a ‘championship’.”  Collier is dead on.  What we have had forever, and for the foreseeable future, is hardly a legitimate means of determining the champion “on the field”.  Instead, the BCS is designed to delegate to the national media – with financial, regional, and a host of other “agendas” – the beauty contest of the BCS rankings which yields two teams which will play in the still mythical championship game.  But alas, it is what we have – nail soup – so boil the nails longer, and toss in some Tabasco and noodles, or starve to death.

While not taking either position, sports writer Tony Barnhart observed, “. . . Auburn did not get into the BCS championship game, setting off a storm of criticism in our part of the world.  Auburn did finish No. 2 in the final Associated Press and coaches polls. Given the fact that the SEC has proven its worth by winning four straight national championships, it remains a bone of contention that an SEC champion went undefeated and walked away with no national recognition.”

Good Auburn men and women may take different legitimate positions on the issue, and do so in a civil manner.  Here is where this writer stands on the interesting question, in case the subject line is too subtle.  

I am unequivocally in favor of the FWAA awarding the trophy to the most deserving team (Oklahoma, Auburn, and as Coach Tuberville even added, Utah).  Serious football observers would almost unanimously see the Auburn Tigers as the compelling choice if the FWAA is to give USC’s stripped trophy to a deserving team which did not play with professional athletes like Reggie Bush.  The Tigers finished 2nd in the final AP and Coaches’ polls.

Here is my rationale . . .

1.  Being awarded the 2004 championship trophy by a legitimate college football body would make a very special, undefeated group of 2004 Auburn Tigers very happy.  I could stop here, and rest my case.  Having savored every moment of that magical season like every other Auburn fan makes this reason  enough for me. 

2. The ‘04 Tigers were arguably the most impressive, dominant team the SEC has fielded in the past 25 years.  In the 13-0 run in 2004, the Tigers outscored opponents 224-39 in the first half of games.  That, my friends, is dominant, especially in America’s toughest conference, bar none.  There would be arguments from the undefeated ‘98 Vols mythical champions, and naturally, from the ‘92 Bama mythical champion.  There is not as compelling a case for last year’s Bama team, who only narrowly escaped pretty average LSU, Tennessee, and Auburn teams.

3.  Mythical is all we have as college football fans now, and like it or not, the momentum of national press is a tsunami that big programs ride to stay in the spotlight, feed recruiting, and impact perceptions that you’re a national Top 15 program.  And like it or not, winning ESPN love and CBS air time indeed matters to a program’s vitality and success.  In short, the FWAA recognition would be jet fuel – mythical or not – for the championship program that Coach Chizik and his staff are building.

4.  Auburn’s Sugar Bowl opponent, Virginia Tech, also faced USC in 2004 and Beamer hailed the Tigers as a superior team to the Trojans (”on the field”).  An apples and oranges comparison?  Sure, but this and a mountain of other evidence make it reasonable that – even with a pro player in Reggie Bush – Auburn would have beaten USC.  And to the “AU didn’t win it on the field” crowd, put this in your BCS pipe and smoke it . . . the USC Trojans did not win it on the field.  They went through an anemic PAC 10 schedule, almost lost to a weak UCLA, and were voted into ONE game against a soft Oklahoma team who was also voted into said game as a sacrificial lamb to USC.  Regional bias, combined with the television glamor of two Heisman quarterback candidates playing in the BCS title game, set the stage for the BCS voters to conveniently overlook Oklahoma narrowly escaping weak foes while surrendering 30 + points in some games.

5.  Certain factions of talk radio and media make a hollow (and curiously partisan) argument that “. . . that was 6 years ago, and it’s so irrelevant now” which can be turned on its head.  Naming Auburn the champion would no more hurt the integrity of the game than AP naming USC champion the year LSU won the BCS title game “hurt the integrity”.  Therefore, if nothing is being hurt here, then I say help right a universally felt “wrong” for the 2004 Auburn team.

6.  Auburn refusing to be recognized as champion (or FWAA refusing) is not going to dent the armor of the “mythical” BCS proponents one damn inch, so bring it on.  As one Auburn fan observed, “Every college who was only awarded the FWAA claims a national championship.  The FWAA Grantland Rice Trophy is one of just four officially recognized titles/trophies in the land and has been awarded since 1954.  This includes 1958 Iowa, 1960 Ole Miss, and 1964 Arkansa.  If a team is selected as champ by either AP, BCS, FWAA, or the FB Foundation, they should claim the {expletive deleted} out of it.  This as legitimate as it gets under the current system.”

7.  Shock jock Paul Finebaum has taken a predictably partisan position on his marginally relevant talk show against FWAA naming Auburn the ‘04 champion.   I hold that this is prima facie evidence it’s a good move for Auburn.

Do not hate the player, hate the game – the game of perceptions and media momentum for a college football program.  Here’s to holding our collective Auburn noses on the mythical part of the game today even as we hoist high the 2004 national champion banner at half-time of the 11-0 Auburn Tigers versus 6-5 Georgia Bulldogs on ESPN on November 13th.  Here’s hoping Kirk Herbstreit gets GameDay assignment for that game.

            -  Your Grandma and Mine

For the obsessive compulsive football fan (which is north of 90% of us in these parts) the sweet sound of the ticking clock marks the long awaited 50 day countdown to September 4, 2010.  If you need to ask what happens on that day, you should schedule a brain scan with your doctor.  This week, in Birmingham, Alabama, the throngs of media will hit the Waffle House early, woof down some smothered, covered, and scattered and scurry over to the Wynfrey Hotel to oversee the curious summer ritual of banal questions and scripted answers. 

Players and coaches will be led by police escort into the Wynfrey past the autograph-lusting crimson mob, who were last seen striking a pose at the Tuscaloosa WalMart with a counterfeit crystal football.  But with the fast exit of SEC court jester Lane Kiffin, and the departure of Vanderbilt head coach Steve Martin, look for painfully dreary SEC media days this week.  It is unlikely that a reporter will go Clay Travis (the Vol sports blogger who at this time last summer added to the annals of journalistic excellence this gem, which he put to then Florida senior quarterback Tim Tebow:  “Are you a virgin?”).  And it is equally unlikely that a reporter will muster the cojones this week to dare put a question to Nick Saban about oversigning, greyshirts, his depth chart, or his opinion on the recent NCAA sanctions on the USC Trojan football program.

And yet we will watch, read, and listen to the dreaded coach-speak, and scripted player commentary, because it is all we have in humid July, and technically, it is “football talk”.  It speeds the ticking of the opening game countdown clock and (with apologies to the new kinder and gentler Georgia Bulldog one-a-day gauntlet) ushers in August two-a-day football practices.  We know Mama was right that a “watched pot never boils”, but we cannot “not look”.  We have dissected (with the able assistance of InterWebz legend StatTiger’s “beautiful mind”) 2009 game film while we multitasked on the recruiting front with its shifting heavy leans, soft verbals, uncommittable offers, rumor, and innuendo.  We have stockpiled our inside information  (defined as a thrice removed rumor from the immediate family member of a coach, player, or booster) and committed firmly to never sharing it with anyone.  One enterprising fan, frustrated with the water boarding torture of the countdown, recently posed the cryogenic fan solution, “If I freeze myself until September 4^th, can I be revived safely for the opening game?”

In years past, Athlon and Lindy’s magazines got us through the summer, but that was before Al Gore invented the Internet and everyone got all sensitive about the timeliness of preseason analysis.  Thanks a lot, Bin Laden.  Gone are the days a fellow can get rich on a summer preseason magazine analyzing last season’s depth chart and roster sprinkled with the requisite  “honey watching on a Saturday afternoon” majorette photos.

Well, let not your hearts be troubled, Auburn fans.  As a public service amid this depressed fan Advent period, I offer two simple, and mind-numbing diversions which will send the clock dial spinning like Miss South Carolina’s head in the onstage interview portion of the pageant.  Any sexism which is read into the suggestions is neither intended nor implied.

Tailgating revolution

Let’s be honest, predictability, and laziness has crept into too many Auburn game day tailgates.  Now before you get a mad on, let me emphatically state that Auburn has staked a claim for the most panoramic, spirited, hospitable and inspirational game day atmosphere, and that includes the food, drink and setup of tailgates, not to mention the most beautiful women in the SEC.  But there has been some slippage, and I blame the on campus Chic Filet.  Word to your Mama (literally) – your tailgate does not need another Chic Filet nugget platter, there are already 20 other lethargic fans who are picking one up.  Sell compressed chicken part nuggets to a Vandy tailgate, we’re all stocked up in Auburn.  No problem letting the rug rats scarf down a tray on the ride down, but please, for the love of all that is holy, orange, and blue, do not desecrate the tailgate with any meat that was not brined, marinated for at least a day, and smoked or grilled on game day itself.  Honor the generations of men who have hauled Big Green Eggs on their back like pack mules through a mine field of bollards and Pinkerton security officers at 4:00 a.m. on game day to secure the perfect shaded grassy noll.  Do not dishonor those men who have sweated, toiled, and grilled while lesser men in their khakis and penny loafers stood sipping a Zima (visiting fans) with the women at a safe distance from the smoke which would taint his Polo Blue cologne.  

In the pursuit of tailgating excellence, what is needed is a revolution in communications and tailgating fare innovation, fueled by competition and rewards.  Effective this Fall, there will be a roving panel of tailgating judges who will evaluate and rank the Top 10 every Saturday Auburn home game.  The top ranked tailgates will be visited post-game by coaches Trooper Taylor, Curtis Luper, Tommy Thigpen, Tracy Rocker, and Gus Malzahn.  Winning tailgate gets a visit from Coach Chizik and unlocked bollards at the street entrance to their tailgate the next game.  So step it up – deviled eggs, a bucket of the Colonel’s, out.  Barbeque competitions, professional chef cooking demos at tailgates, and 20 varieties of ice cold beer, in.  Winner’s Tip:  Create a tailgating Facebook group in which the men and women fill in the gameday menu to ensure variety, innovation, and avoid the “ten brownie trays and no entrees” problem.

Statistical Swagger

Face it, frat boys, the nerds are winning.  Statistical analysis is all the rage, and the math team has claimed a space in the faceless world of the Internet with a new statistical swagger that is at once intimidating and as sexy as an IPO.  Now that nerds are gaining ground on campus fashion sense (not rocket science – Columbia fishing shirt, shorts, Costas) they will soon be unstoppable, and your girlfriend has a wandering gaze.  Statistical machismo – you want it, chicks dig it, and it is fast becoming the deciphering code for identifying the serious fan whose game day opinion and analysis matters.  Vegas fortunes await the Excel spreadsheeting Ninja who can beat the NCAA statistical database into a Picasso which under black light reveals the image of a game’s final point spread. 

You, too, can be the next Apache who in his spare time away from youth baseball breaks down the led pipe cinch games.  A renowned idiot savant (at least half true) he knows which game to move on before it’s even played, and yet is so benevolent he wants to help you, not him, beat Vegas.  Here’s the best part – if by some extremely unlikely turn of game events he is wrong, you get a full year of fail-safe plays from Apache free of charge.  What a country! 

Now, it is science that my readership here is a statistically valid random sample of fans (well, we could debate the “random” part), and as such, only 20% of you have the mathematical aptitude to become a bona fide Numbers Ninja.  This is a corollary of the 80/20 rule.  But relax – nearly as much success can be achieved with my patented StatMan DVD and weekly web service set.  At a mere $5.95 weekly subscription price (satisfaction guaranteed or full refund) this is like taking candy from a pledge.  For today only, we are offering  this free introductory offer of StatMan at no charge.  You will be automatically billed starting next week but can cancel the service at any time.

Here is the 2009 statistical snapshot of the Auburn Tigers.  Study it carefully, and follow the StatMan steps carefully, and you will own your tailgating space, and will soon have your own entourage of adoring fans who breathlessly await your breakdown of Auburn vs. {This Week’s Victim}. 

StatMan Numbers Ninja Easy Steps

ONE:   Pick the two lowest statistical categories for Auburn, and the one highest.  It is too hard to memorize more than three.

TWO:  Create your gameday StatMan talking points from these three categories (see No. 1 above). 

THREE:  Use very aggressive language and military metaphors.  Coach-speak, NFL x’s and o’s lingo also works.  Creates a manly deliver tone that sells.

FOUR:  Drill the talking points into your head with a minimum of 200 repetitions.  Video practice and feedback on your delivery is highly recommended.  Memorization is the key.

Now you’re ready to rock on Gameday.   To help you get the idea, here are my sample talking points for the opening game . . .

1.       There are three, and only three stats to watch this season as we go to battle.

2.       If Auburn can improve its turnover margin just incrementally, we will be in every game.  It was .08 last year, and the SEC leader was 1.36.  With Gus’s potent attack, we can outscore every opponent on our schedule with just a .70 turnover margin.  Last year, we gained 24 turnovers, but lost 23.  Coach Chizik has focused primarily on ball security by our skill players, because it is more in our control than creating turnovers.  

3.       The second mission-critical stat is total defense.   You would think that scoring defense is more important, since the team with the most points wins the game, but that misses the big picture.  Auburn was 11^th in the SEC last year in total defense, surrendering an un-Auburnlike 374 yards, as compared to national leader TCU’s 239.  Our competitive advantage this season is the most productive offense in the SEC.  In order to drive the enemy into the sea, we must improve total defense to under 295 yards, which, when combined with our .70 or better turnover margin, will increase our number of offensive plays by 15%.

4.       Thirdly, in the brutal war of field position, our opponent kick returns, and our punt return production are the stats to watch.  Last season, on 69 kickoff returns, we gave up a whopping 23.5 yard average return and a season total of 1,624 return yards!  That amounts to giving the opponent an additional 1,000 yard rusher.  Conversely, we ranked an abysmal 12^th in the SEC in our punt returns, with an anemic average of 4.4 yards per return, a national ranking of 113^th, as compared to LSU’s national leading 18.8 yards per return.  Coach Chizik signed Codey Parkey because he will boom 85% of his kickoffs into the end zone, which will cut our opponent return yardage by over 75% (I don’t have time to explain why this figure isn’t 85%, but it’s based on an algorithm of probabilties and wind speed based on number of night games played).   He also signed Trovon Reed to instantly solve the punt return production issue.

5.       And lastly, which is a near certainty in our favor, we must maintain our total offense levels from 2009.  Gus Malzahn debuted in his Auburn offensive coordinator role by rolling up a stunningly balanced 212 rushing and 219 passing production per game.  This total offensive firepower of 431 yards per game vaulted Auburn to the 2^nd best offense in the SEC.  We do not have to improve on this, just maintain 2009 levels.  But I ask you, with Cam Newton, and our SEC-best wide receiver corps, and three-headed monster of Mario, Dyer, and the Squirrel toting the rock, does anyone seriously believe we won’t IMPROVE our total offensive production?

As you deliver the last statement before a big SEC game, pause for a full 5-count, and give each person listening the Tracy Rocker stare of death.  Then slam the barbeque grill violently before delivering the line.  In case some Weisenheimer says, “So what you’re saying is that if we stop the run, run the football, avoid turnovers, and are solid in the kicking game, we’ll win?”, do not answer.  Repeat Tracy Rocker death stare.  You’ll soon be holding court with a posse of hangers on at every home game, and fend off the nerd assault on your man card.

           -   Clementine Paddleford

College football championships are not won in July, but they can most assuredly be lost in the dog days of summer.  Before the smell of cut grass on the practice field for two-a-days is wafting through the summer air, a team is either mentally dialed in to a clear and compelling goal, or going through the motions and hoping things “work out”.  Coaching staffs and team leaders have either harnessed the talent and egos into a unifying vision, defining every single player’s role in creating the reality, or they are an accident waiting to happen in the bloodbath known as the SEC.  Players call it “buying in”, which suggests a specific strategy had been “sold” – and with the moxy and backbone of a prizefighter.  It must be achievable – not necessarily “probable” to the pundits, just possible.  

In the absence of a bold, compelling, clear, and precise statement of what you want, why you want it, when you want it, and how you will get there, you will have wildly varying degrees of focus, effort, and results.  These will present at both the individual player preparation and performance level, and even more acutely at the teamwork level.  In short, you will fail, because you have mentally laid the framework for a letdown, and you are not actively attending to the smallest of details in all phases of performance as champions always do.  You have in fact, unwittingly given players permission to underperform, take a play off, and not prepare physically and mentally.

Which brings us to the question swimming around in the mind of most every Auburn fan as the excitement and promise of Coach Chizik’s second season approaches:  What should we expect?

Ah, the expectation game . . . it’s played on many levels.  If a coach sets expectations higher than his product has the capacity to deliver, he risks an Auburn 2003 problem.  Vandy, Ole Miss, and even Tennessee will need far more than a compelling mission statement to win 8 or more games this season.  But if a coach tries to dumb down fan base expectations so that his report card is graded on the curve, he creates the self-fulfilling prophesy of mediocrity, paradoxically increasing the likelihood of being fired.  And interestingly, Auburn’s magical, undefeated 2004 season was preceded by this strikingly bold statement from then embattled head coach, Tommy Tuberville:  “. . . we will get it done, and we will win the national championship.”  This writer is declaring 2004 a national championship season, which is about as fair and valid as the mythical AP and the BCS media monster creation for our purposes here.

Returning again to the question which weighs on pundits and fans minds in the Loveliest Village, what should we expect from the 2010 edition of the Auburn Tigers?  Well, I believe a lot.  And with excellent coaching and breakout years by just 5-6 key players, I believe a whole lot, as in an SEC West title, trip to Atlanta, and more.

Now that I have riled the realist segment of Auburn fandom and perhaps even an Auburn coach or two who knows we will depend a lot on youth for depth, let me make the case why now is the time for backbone and belief on the Plains in the form of bold and lofty goals. 

Auburn Will Have the Most Explosive Offense in the SEC

The Malzahn offensive system will reach full deployment early in the season, with playmaking assets that will allow Gus to “pace” a defense with relentless speed between plays.  What Tony “Otis” Franklin promised, Gus will deliver.  Gus has himself forecast a speed of play this Fall which will make last season appear lethargic. 

Auburn will field in Cameron Newton a physical freak of a quarterback with the rare combination of rifle arm, height, speed, elusiveness, and mobility in one body.  Yes, he will have to prove that he can make decisions well, reading the field and delivering passes with the speed, arc, or touch required.  But his task will be simplified by the  embarrassment of riches in skill players and a veteran, talented offensive line.  These assets  will be deployed by arguably the most innovative offensive coordinator in the country.  While it will be critical for freshman Michael Dyer to contribute, there is every reason to expect he will by a few games in to become a lethal tandem with Mario Fannin.  At wide receiver, Auburn will enjoy quality depth at a level that may well exceed the 2004 depth chart, including newcomers Trovon Reed and Antonio Goodwin who bring impact play ability and should see time as freshmen. 

The Auburn Defense Can Be Coached Into SEC Form 

The defense is a concern after last year’s spotty play, but Coach Chizik and Ted Roof will have a great deal more depth to work with, albeit youthful.  There will be improvement, and it need not be to the level of Top 15 nationally in scoring defense, because the Tigers will be that potent offensively.  The x factor here is injury avoidance on the defensive line and in the secondary, as with most SEC teams.  But do not bet against Gene Chizik fielding a defense that is significantly improved from 2009.  And as for the youth who must provide depth, a number of these signees on the defensive side of the ball are not typical freshmen.  They will contribute and play at a high level by midseason on both special teams and as backups.

An All-SEC Placekicker and Improved Special Teams

As a senior, Wes Byrum has a chance to be All-SEC as placekicker.  Signee Cody Parkey is capable of booming a majority of kickoffs into the end zone, an issue which plagued Auburn in numerous games last season.  The punting, return, and kick coverage areas of special teams remain as question marks, and must be buttoned up to at least the mistake-free level or a championship run becomes very improbable.

If Not Now, When?

The Auburn schedule in even numbered years sets up nicely, with the tougher games in Auburn save the Iron Bowl.  The Tigers will graduate some veteran players after this year, especially on the offensive line, which makes the youth issue a problem again in 2011.  So while it would be nice to have a higher probability of a big run this season based on talent, the probability may not in fact improve a year from now.  Form the expectation of champions now, which includes the goal to to win the SEC West and get to Atlanta every year. Carpe diem.  If we shoot for the moon and come up short, we will have at a minimum hardwired the habits of a winner in the team which will return for the 2011 campaign. 

College football is served up to us to deliver the drama of big dreams on a big stage, improbable upsets and magical seasons.  This year, the SEC champion will emerge from a cluster of teams including Florida, LSU, Auburn, and Alabama.  Add long shots Georgia, Arkansas and, what the hell, South Carolina if you like.  Alabama will not repeat, because the task of escaping 3-4 tight SEC games a second consecutive year, and  an eight game stretch of zero holding calls will not be allowed by the gods of gridiron averages.  Repeat SEC champions are rare indeed, with Tennessee the last to repeat in 1998.

So why not big, hairy goals for Auburn now?  This is college football, not an ultra conservative presentation of a business plan to a bank loan committee (do they still loan money?), with shareholder interests at stake.  Think big, scrap the sandbag, and chase the improbable – that’s a team I’ll spend big greenbacks to watch.

With the fast exit of the SEC court jester Lane Kiffin, look for painfully dreary SEC media days this summer, unless some reporter musters the cojones to dare put a question to Nick Saban about oversigning, greyshirts or his depth chart.  We will soon be treated to the dreaded coach-speak throughout the SEC as the media probes for quotes like this gem that will just have you ready to run through a wall in your game day body paint:

“We have some holes to fill on defense from graduations, and our quarterback is untested, but I guarantee you that we’ll play hard every down.  We have the talent to have a special season, but in this league, it will come down to three or four games in which turnovers and big plays tell the story.  We’re gonna win some games, and I think  it will be soon.”

Well, Coach,  “some” is not a number, and “soon” is not a time!  

If ever there were a more perfect time for the collective psyche of the Auburn fan base to trade in hope for expectation, humility for confidence, and wishing for believing, it is now.  That is precisely the mental architecture that was infused in the coaching staff assembled by Gene Chizik, which is rapidly reshaping belief systems in the Auburn program.  What is “possible” in recruiting to Auburn has been redefined, and the naysayers served a plate of medium well crow.  Auburn’s arch-rival is coming off its best season since 1992, with decades in the making “resources” and pressure points  throughout the state built to drive blue chippers to Tuscaloosa.  And yet, the Tigers continue to lay waste on the recruiting front, leading on top in-state players like Erique Florence and a potential second straight top five crop of national players.

Someone close to the Auburn football program – very close – recently had this message for me . . . “Glory days are ahead”.  I’ll take a year’s supply of that, Sir.  Talk may be cheap, but the motivation to achieve begins with envisioning the results.

Now bring on the Arkansas State Red Wolves!

In Norse mythology, Mjölner (pronounced my-oll-nir in English) is the Hammer of Thor, a major god associated with thunder.  The Hammer of Thor is depicted in Norse mythology as one of the most fearsome weapons, capable of leveling mountains. Though generally recognized and depicted as a hammer,  the Hammer of Thor is sometimes referred to as an axe or club 

The Prose Edda gives a summary of Mjölner’s special qualities in that, with Mjölner, Thor:

“ . . . would be able to strike as firmly as he wanted, whatever his aim, and the hammer would never fail, and if he threw it at something, it would never miss and never fly so far from his hand that it would not find its way back, and when he wanted, it would be so small that it could be carried inside his tunic.” 

Auburn offensive line coach Jeff Grimes, I submit, is fast at work forging Thor’s Hammer, otherwise known as the Auburn offensive line.  My how the rebuilding and stockpiling is good for the Auburn soul at Running Back U.  It seems a decade since a certain offensive coordinator bearing a striking resemblance to Otis from Mayberry ordered a Slim Fast diet on the Auburn offensive line, and in the SEC, the results were well, skinny.  And skinny is ugly when you’re talking about “big uglies”. 

Dominant offensive lines are hardly a fad of the month at Auburn, an SEC power which has boasted no small number of NFL O-line careers over the years.  So where did Thor’s Hammer go in recent years?  A snapsot of 2006-Present Auburn offensive line signees tells a story in itself . . .

I seek not the tedious rehash of the impact (or not) of each O-line signee since  the 2006 class;  however, in most cases the signee’s name itself tells a story.  In other cases, the sheer number of O-line signees is far more significant. 

Just for the sake of discussion, let’s assume an arguably generous “success rate” of 50% for offensive linemen you sign.  We’ll define success as the player starting by his Junior season (and I will not bog down the analysis here by evaluating whether the player was in fact SEC caliber as a starter).  Obviously, it is clearly possible to have a far worse success rate than 50% in a given year as player defections, academic issues, refusal to endure the crucible of Yox, and certainly, underperformance. 

So at a 50% success rate, here is how it would break down in terms of O-linemen who would ultimately contribute (if you wish, .5 could be viewed simply as a partially contributing player) . . .

2006:   1.5

2007:   3

2008:   1

2009:   1

2010:    3.5

2011:   TBD

It does not take a genius to conclude from the above that the margin for error on the Auburn offensive line has been razor thin.  In order to field a quality O-line to compete in the SEC, Coach Hugh Nall had to have extraordinarily good luck avoiding injuries, or found himself having to turn to capable walk-ons, which from time to time does work out.  But you are swimming upstream like a salmon to rely on this luck over time, and the end is not pretty for the salmon.

The result, borne of desperation, can be to convert defensive tackles to offensive line, creating a deficit on that side of the ball.  It’s a zero sum game, and in the long run, a loser’s game.  Perform this same numbers and signee quality analysis on the Top 10 programs since 2006, and you will find that by and large they stockpile a minimum of 4-5 quality offensive linemen every year.  At that rate, they can survive a 50% failure rate and reload.

A tip of the hat to Auburn offensive line coach, Jeff Grimes.  While it is way too early to declare victory on the quality of our 2010 signees, Coach Grimes certainly righted the ship in terms of numbers, and the recruiting and coaches’ evaluations at least point toward a higher quality level similar to the Auburn 2007 class which includes current starters Pugh and Ziemba, with Ramsey contributing as a freshman, and Cooper still in the mix for possible playing time. 

Donning for just a moment my orange and blue shades, Mack, Gayden, Mosley, and (prior to his current battle with illness) Shon Coleman are above average in terms of probability of starting by 2011.  And Auburn coaches are very high on Christian and Slade despite the 3-star ratings, while considering Tunde Fariyike a major steal whose 2-star rating has a chance to become legendary in its idiocy. 

And Grimes’ forging of Thor’s Hammer is ahead of schedule to be sure with class of 2011 commitments which have exploded from the gate.  Although Spencer Region’s commitment has reopened (you be the judge – cleaving unto the dark side, or just likes visits?) Auburn is in great shape with Thomas O’Reilly, and highly recruited Reese Dismukes, who spurned Saban for the Auburn Tigers just this week.  Look for Grimes to nail down two big-time tackles – whether celebrated 4-stars or not – to continue the consistency in the quality and numbers game on the Plains!

To the alumni or well indoctrinated Auburn faithful, it is hardly new to refer to ourselves as the Auburn Family.  In fact, uttering the term Auburn “Nation” in a crowd of burnt orange and navy blue people is tantamount to screaming “fire” in a crowded theatre.  Nation better describes Al Qaeda, Iran, North Korea, and that crimson-garbed collection of rubes in West Vance, Alabama.  Together, these four dark forces comprise the “axis of evil” ($1 to George W. Bush).

If you have been paying attention even a little in recent months, the branding of Auburn football (and I suspect, sports at large) as  Family has gained traction and impact as in no period I can recall in the modern era.  Both the top 5 ranked February, 2010 signing class, and the 2011 class commitments and prospects drop the F word repeatedly in expressing what sets Auburn apart.

Which begs the question, what, precisely do recruits have in mind in describing Auburn football as a Family?  Have Coach Chizik and his staff created a significant competitive advantage, difficult to mimic or replicate?  Will copycat SEC foes come off looking as cheesy and inauthentic as a pregame Dawg Walk or Elephant Walk when they inevitably start dropping the F word in their own recruiting tactics?

What methods, values, practices and intangibles comprise the unique experience of Family at Auburn, and specifically, in the way our football coaches and players live and breathe it?  Why does it stand out so vividly to recruits?

Based on my own observations and interactions with this staff, and many, many years of just “getting” what we mean by Auburn Family (and it’s first cousin, the Auburn Spirit), here is my educated guess . . .  It is all about a very authentic way of relating to the “whole person”.  It is not Auburn football as a business (though it assuredly is, like every Division I program) in which the recruit or player is an interchangeable part in a machine; a Machiavellian commodity. 

And here’s the catch – it has to be real with current players, or it gets turned against you.   Recruits will talk to players, and if Family is a phony recruiting gimmick, the charlatan coaches will be outed.  Malcolm Gladwell, in Blink, describes our brain’s hardwired ability for what he calls “rapid cognition”.  This is also called “thin slicing”, or the kind of thinking that happens in a blink of an eye.  “When you meet someone for the first time,” says Gladwell, “or walk into a house you are thinking of buying, or read the first few sentences of a book, your mind takes about two seconds to jump to a series of conclusions.  There’s a wonderful phrase in psychology–”the power of thin slicing”–which says that as human beings we are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience.”

Make no mistake about it, blue chip football recruits “thin slice” the football team and coaching staff culture on their brief official and unofficial visits.  Impressions are quickly drawn, and can be hard to change after the visit.  It is evident that Coach Chizik, his staff, and indeed, current players have bought into a way of being and working together, of relating to one another and to prospective new “family members”, that can be picked up on by rapid cognition – not lengthy analysis or hard-selling.

As the Tigers invaded the state of Georgia to pluck Antonio Goodwin, Shaun Kitchens, and Jeffrey Whitaker, to name just a few, you can well imagine this Mark Richt reaction as his seat warms these days:  “Rodney, what is this ‘family’ crap Auburn is pushing?  We have 15 visitors this weekend.  Are you and the staff working on that ‘family’ deal?  I’m catching hell from our boosters about kids announcing to Auburn because it feels like  family.  Make sure you and the guys use the word ‘family’ alot.”

Family is Coach Chizik and the staff visiting Shon Coleman upon learning of his serious diagnosis, and football not even coming up in conversation.  Family is trusting recruits to visit whatever colleges they wish, and allowing them to set the terms for that.  If it leads to losing a recruit or two, maybe he wasn’t an Auburn man in the first place.

Family means Trovon Reed connecting with a unique sense of family at Auburn – not merely the football program – despite his friend Lache Seastrunk signing elsewhere, and despite enormous (and borderline illegal) pressure from his high school coach to sign with LSU. 

It means hearing an entire student body use the term Auburn Family, and it have a Coca-Cola brand realness about it.

It’s experiencing the stark contrast of visiting a “nation” like Bama, having Nick Saban work you out and seem like he’s in a hurry and would rather be somewhere else, and then going home and finding out you have been issued a 3-day deadline to commit through your high school coach, who seems like his life depends on it (and livelihood surely does).

There’s “family”, and then there’s Family with a capital F.  Recruits, accept no substitute.

From the Mouths of Babes

The F word at Auburn?  Don’t take this blogger’s word for it, listen to the 2010 signees and 2011 class of recruits (from media reports).

OL Commitment Spencer Region

“Some stuff happened (Friday) night, and then this morning I chose Auburn,” said Region. “There were a lot of Alabama fans (at the announcement) because I guess they took me for granted. They thought I was a lock.

“I felt like I was taken for granted even by the coaching staff at Alabama. That’s just not where I need to be. I’m not about to go into that kind of program.

“The fans and reporters were really, really surprised, but I’m doing what’s best for me and my family.”

Auburn, Region said, took a different approach to his recruitment.

The Tigers didn’t pressure him. They didn’t tell him what and when to do it.

It worked.

“Auburn didn’t pressure me into it. They said to do it whenever I’m ready,” said Region. “I just felt real good about them.”

“It’s family at Auburn. We are all family. That’s the biggest thing to me.”

The lack of pressure by the Auburn coaches wasn’t the only reason he chose the Tigers.

“We are family at Auburn,” he said. “I’m real close to the coaching staff and I just feel at home there. I’ve always felt comfortable with all of the coaches at Auburn. I feel like I can go to them with any problem I have. That’s a big thing.

DE Prospect Devaunte Sigler

Sigler said he was impressed with Chizik and the rest of the Tigers’ staff. He was impressed with the campus and facilities. But what stood out the most to him, Sigler said, was the overall environment at Auburn.

“The people,” he said. “They just have good people there. Everybody there has a positive attitude. Everybody speaks to everybody. You don’t even have to know them and they say ‘hello’.

“I like being around a nice, positive environment. If there is one thing that is going to lean me towards a school it is the people. I want to be around positive people, a positive environment. It seems like Auburn has that.”

6’ 5”, 200 lb. WR Prospect Joseph Morrow

“They are all great coaches,” said Morrow. “The people at Auburn are great. Coach Taylor, he’s amazing. He’s something else. I got to talk to him and he told me if I come there, I’d be a part of the family. They are real big on family and I like that.

“I met a few of the players and they made me feel real welcomed. Coach Chizik was very straightforward. He told me they liked me and wanted me, but didn’t sugarcoat anything.”

LB Prospect Chris Landrum

“I like the way they treat their players, the way they care about them and how they are about family,” said Landrum. “I like Coach Roof. I like Coach Chizik. I like all of them.

“I also like the players. I got to meet more of them. I got to sit in on some position meetings. I just got a chance to bond with everyone.”

Landrum has offers from Auburn, Alabama, Duke and South Alabama. Although he’s likely to receive more offers before February, he may not need them.

“It just feels right. It feels like I’m at home.”

LB Prospect Shaquille Roberson

“It was great,” said Roberson. “I liked the way they put emphasis on family. They are real big on that and I can see it. I talked to some of the players and they said everyone is real close.”

QB Prospect C. J. Uzomah

“Coach Malzahn tells the truth,” Uzomah said. “Some coaches will say one thing and then you get on campus and they act a different way. He isn’t like that. I really like Coach Malzahn, but I like the entire coaching staff at Auburn.

“I also like the overall atmosphere at Auburn. I want a place I can be comfortable at and know that my parents would be comfortable letting me go to. I feel like Auburn could possibly be that place.”

Trovon Reed

“Everything was great, from the time I got there until I left,” he said. “It was a great trip. I liked everything about it.

“It made me feel really loved.”

“Coach ‘Troop’ is the same. He never changes,” Reed said of the second-year receivers coach. “He always has energy.

“He’s like one of us. He’s not an old-school coach that isn’t going to chill and crack jokes. He cracks jokes with us, has fun.”

Shon Coleman

“I had a real good time with them, my future teammates,” he said.

Coleman, who’s player-host was receiver Travante Stallworth, was joined on the trip by his mother, sister and cousin. They all got to see first-hand what Auburn is like.

“Auburn is a family thing,” he said. “Everybody is cool. You don’t have any problems with anybody.”

Eric Mack

“I’m going to Auburn,” said Mack.

“It’s a family atmosphere down there,” said Mack after his official visit. “I went down there all the way from South Carolina, hung out with some of the players and they treated me like I was already a part of the team.

Jeffrey Whitaker

“They’re awesome,” he said. “It’s a phenomenal staff full of great coaches, great recruiters and great people. I really like the coaches.”

“Auburn just felt comfortable to me,” said Whitaker. “It just felt right. It just felt like home at Auburn.”

Rocker was a big reason for that.

“I think he’s a guy that’s going to have my back 100-percent, a guy I can learn a lot of great things from, a lot of great things from other than football,” said Whitaker. “He’s a great coach, but he’s a great person first.”

Spencer Region the Recruiter

“I’m working hard on them, but not really forcing it on them,” said Region, referring to offensive linemen prospects Reese Dismukes and Thomas O’Reilly.  “I really didn’t try to recruit (Dismukes) today,” said Region. “I just tried to have a good time and kind of recruit him without saying anything. We can have a good time down here when we play down here. I didn’t really push it. We just had a good time.”

“The visit was great. I love being at Auburn. It’s exactly the reason I chose Auburn because it’s family-like. I’m still committed and I go down there and they still treat me like family.”

Letting Auburn Sell Itself

What is most refreshing about the approach the Auburn coaching staff is taking in selling our program is that they are not trying to beat our arch-rivals at their own game.  You do not create competitive advantage by copying.  After the undeniable splash of Big Cat Weekend, some rival SEC school will host a CopyCat Weekend, and it will likely come off counterfeit.  Chizik & Company are selling what is genuinely all-Auburn, difficult to copy, and is as engrained and real in our culture as the live oaks at Toomer’s Corner.  Believe it, get it, live it,  and it will sell itself.  Certainly not to every recruit, but to a championship caliber share, whose geographic reach is expanding these days.

       -         Victor Hugo, Histoire d’un Crime, 1852

In the kill or be killed world of Division I college football, aspiring head coaches are modern-day Jacobs, dreaming of the ladder which is set upon the earth, with one rung to another ascending to heaven, otherwise known as a 7-figure Jimmy Sexton head coaching contract. 

But speaking as a 20-year designer of corporate compensation and reward systems, a question begs to be asked.  Is the prevalent compensation model for big-time college football programs, which I will dub the “Rock Star and Roadies” (“RSR”) model, aligned with the goal of sustaining winning over a long period of time?  Bluntly, does the extremely “top heavy” RSR compensation model work?  Is the head coach, in the end, the only critical component of a football program being built to last (which is clearly the rationale with 70% or more of the compensation “investment” or salary budget being driven to the head coach)? 

Well, Yes.  And No.  Rock stars Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, and Nick Saban (apologies to Mick Jagger and The Boss for being lumped in with such a loathsome persona) have sated fan and booster lust for championship hardware.  And yet, the incidence of repeat conference and national championships in a four-year period has proven more elusive over the past 20 years, with the improbable exceptions of SEC powers LSU and Florida in the past decade.  Many sage observers of the anatomy of the post-championship decline point to the program being a victim of its success.  In the wake of the publicity of the championship, talented assistants and coordinators climb Jacob’s ladder to the next level toward their own rock star compensation.  Continuity is lost, recruiting pipelines fractured, and the door opens for the hungry rivals to seize the day.

Follow me into a deeper dive into the RSR compensation model with this hypothetical.  To simplify analysis, we’ll use a total coaching staff base salary budget of $6,550,000, and we’ll deal with the base salary component only.  We’ll exclude supporting positions such as strength and conditioning, et. al. for simplicity.  The breakdown of this hypothetical Rock Star and Roadies compensation model is as follows:

The above hypothetical compensation structure by position remains the prevalent practice at the big-time Division I college football programs.  On the surface, there is nothing wrong with it.  It mirrors the modern-day “rock star” model of Fortune 500 companies in terms of top-heavy CEO compensation systems.  It is premised on the value proposition that the right head coach (“CEO”) is the straw that really stirs the drink.  Coordinators and staffers can and will come and go, but if you have a proven head coach, the system rocks on, he simply reloads with the next up and coming coordinator or assistant, and the winning continues.  However, the RSR system is inherently built to create a disruptive revolving door at the coordinator and staff levels.  Increasingly, programs face a contradiction between what they expect assistant coaches to do and how they reward them. 

Ask any college football analyst, veteran assistant, or even head coach, and they will readily acknowledge that championship seasons are accomplished in large part through the hard work, competence, and brilliance of the top two coordinators and even to an extent the position coaches who mold the fundamentals, and burn up the recruiting trails for top talent.  That being the case, why do major programs (and assistants) continue to tolerate the obscene distance between head coach and coordinator salaries (8-9% of the head coaches salary in the above hypothetical)?  The reason is simple:  because they can.  Ambitious assistants hold out hope early in their careers that they will ascend Jacob’s ladder to the rock star pot of gold.  Those who miss that opportunity find themselves untrained for other lines of work and usually ride out a career as an assistant or plateau as coordinators like Mickey Andrews or Joe Kines.  And $200-$400K as an assistant is  hardly slave labor, unless you work for Nick Saban.

Yes, in fact, the Rock Star compensation model can work effectively, and is a perfectly serviceable reward system for a college football program (especially if you’re one of the “rock stars”).  But if I were a Division I head coach or athletic director, I would design an altogether more balanced coaching staff reward system which if managed properly, would hardwire stability and continuity in your own program, even as it is disrupts and rattles the cages of  rival programs.  Now that is strategic compensation!

I’ll dub this alternative approach the Value-Based compensation model for a coaching staff.  Salaries are based on the value of the coach or assistant, and not necessarily the market average of that position in Division I.  The strategic goal of the value-based system is to foster stability and continuity in the program, and significantly reduce the likelihood of turnover of top coordinators and assistants for pay related reasons.

The most notable difference is proportion – the head coach is paid well enough, but not as dramatically out of proportion with assistants as the Rock Star model.  Now here’s the rub – the value-based model only works if an AD hires a head coach who is willing to “get rich slow”.  As you will see in the example below, you could not get to second base in negotiations with Jimmy Sexton for a Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, or Nick Saban hire, nor would you want to do so.  They’re rock stars with a long line of roadies waiting in line, willing to serve as replaceable grunts.  And therein is the magic of the value-based approach – it is breathtakingly attractive to the coordinator and staff levels.  It aligns the rewards and perquisites with the winning results that are created by the entire coaching staff, not just by the head coach.

Let’s take a look at the compensation structure (same budget of $6,550,000)

With apologies to Auburn head football coach Gene Chizik and his lovely wife, Jonna, for the “pay cut”, let me play out the value-based model as a reward system that would be strategically brilliant for the current Auburn coaching staff.  Coach Chizik, I submit, has little interest in the rock star glitz that accompanies the same compensation model.  Make no mistake, he is driven to win and deserves the celebrity and hype that will bring, but he certainly seems more grounded as a man, and motivated by more than just cash.  He also possesses the humility and intellect to grasp that the assemblage of capable, driven, competent coordinators and position coaches is what creates long-term success in a football program.  Gus Malzahn, for example, has without question revolutionized almost overnight the perception of offensive football at Auburn University.  Like the philosophy or not, the most talented high school athletes are swept up in the sizzle and high octane of this fast-paced system.  With this one brilliant hire, Coach Chizik created a sea change in both the perception, and the results of Auburn offensive production.

Coach Malzahn, in turn, is equally humble, and smart enough to recognize that without Jeff Grimes to build fundamentally sound offensive line play, and Trooper Taylor and Curtis Luper to recruit and coach the nation’s best, success will not follow.   And a revolving door of such a cohesive staff is a disruptive force that prevents a program from being “built to last” in terms of winning consistently. 

The value-based system would have as a primary objective the above-market compensation of the top two coordinators.  Obviously, they remain vulnerable to being lured to a head coaching position, but you would have reduced that risk to a limited number of the most attractive and well-funded programs.  Instead of a probable 2-3 year tenure of a talented coordinator, this system would be more likely to retain the coordinator for 5-6 years, and even longer, depending on the head coaching vacancies that occur.

To work optimally, the system would be heavily incentive-based, but not just for the head coach.  Given the head coach position being somewhat “below market” for the benefit of diverting compensation to valuable assistants, incentives for results such as 9-win + seasons, an SEC West title, SEC championship, BCS bowl game, and BCS national championship would be designed such that bonuses would drive coaching staff “total compensation” 30-40% above market for results achieved.  To deter the wrong results from incentives such as illicit recruiting tactics, you build in a provision for immediate termination without buyout in the event of major NCAA sanctions.

Turnover in the coaching staff becomes more predictable, and far less destructive.  Auburn becomes the destination for the most sought-after coordinators and position coaches.  And meanwhile, the system is a stick in the eye for rival SEC programs, who face a dilemma . . .  blow the coaching staff salary budget by matching the Auburn staff salaries, or be at continual risk of turnover of top assistants to Auburn should a vacancy occur.  All the while, resentment festers on those rival coaching staffs over compensation issues.

Finally, the value-based model should not be confused with the recent, and arguably, failed “head coach in waiting” gimmickry used at FSU and Texas, in which Jimbo Fisher and Will Muschamp were given above-market salaries and practically speaking, meaningless contractual guarantees to be the successor head coach.  This ended ugly at FSU as Bowden failed, and Fisher was elevated in the wake of a violent coup.  At Texas, the scenario is different, with Mack Brown posturing in a coy manner as to exactly how long the “waiting” will be, and Will Muschamp working his own promotion opportunities under the radar at select programs such as Georgia.  While succeeding at retaining top coordinators, the internal conflict created lacked the synergy you seek from well designed reward systems.

And Lo, the Whip of SaBear hath cracked, and twenty thousand elephant kneck barbarians howl at the gates of the Loveliest Village.  From their slime infested holes they crawl, slithering like the serpents they are upon the land that God calls His own, our homeland, fairest of all southern lands, sweet Auburn.  Here, ‘neath the ancient oaks is beauty found, and here, in these hallowed halls of learning is honor taught, and doth all who dwell here seek that which is highest.  The vile invaders march head held high in arrogance, spewing their slobbery claims of conquest and Heisman hype.  And verily, they mock, scorn, and laugh, and foretell of ruin, rape and pillage on this soil.    

By the Sword of Bo and the arrow of Sully, I do prophesy this day, it is the blood of the elephant which shall spill, and the Dwarf of West Vance who shall be slain.  The gods of the gridiron hath grown angry, and in their ire hath cried out to the angel of justice to visit vengeance unto the dark Lord, SaBear the Small.  He conquers not by skill, nor by honor, but by deceit, a mercenary without belief, enjoined by the betrayer, Willis, whose treasonous act on his mother land hath banished him for all time from the land which gave him life.  No man of Auburn is he, and stripped of the helm of orange, and armor of blue.

And Lo, hath the sour strain of soothsayer symphony whined and screeched a cacophony of crimpson koolaid.  They follow not the code of battle this day, and giveth not unto our proud warriors even a nod of respect.  The eyes of each elephant kneck warrior gaze unto Atlanta, where the jaws of the Gator ready for elephant feast.    

Woe unto the warrior who wouldst dishonor the most deadly battlefield, the Battle of Iron, on which the blood of many hath been spilled for naught but the Right of Bragging.  The haughty shall be humbled, the rich sent away empty, and only the readied warrior lifted up in this war to end all wars.  All else is but mythical, forgotten, a crown of fool’s gold and contrived conquest.     

We shall be instruments of the gods’ justice, one day henceforth, and channels of their anger at the Dishonorable Dwarf.  We shall rise up without fear, for we fear not death on the Field of Dye, only dishonor.  Urged on in the deafening roar of our arena, shall our warriors strike the crimpson beast with apocalyptic force.  Depleted and outnumbered, we shall strike the head of the beast, as didst David slay the Philistine in days of old.  And as the leaderless army thrashes wildly in vain, shall they be funneled into the narrow corridor of Jordan and Hare, where their numbers count for naught.  Into the Tiger’s lair shall they march, and shall they fall by the hundreds. 

The victory shall be for good and right, and not for gold and silver, as with the Knights of the Red Club, procuring weaponry and warrior to all who wouldst sell their soul unto the Dark Lord of West Vance. 

And Lo, no child shall lead us unto battle, but a King rich in bloodlines, and born to fight, bred to battle – King Chizik.  One day henceforth, shall he draw the sword of the righteous, and shall he fight with the strength of the hosts of heaven.  And offering not mercy unto the vile and corrupt invaders, shall King Chizik open the gates of hell upon the Field of Dye. 

Ready yourselves, People of the Plains, and awaken the echoes of Nineteen and Eighty Nine.  In your faces at the Walk of the Tiger shall the ferocity of the righteous show, and in your larynx raging furor shall our warriors find force.  And Lo, shall King Chizik enter battle with but fifty brave souls who care not what the enemy forces number.  The sacred battle plan is hatched, rested our are warriors, and readied for the task.  They battle for honor, the glory of battle, the blue jersey, and cannot be defeated. 

Thine eyes shall see the glory of Gus, that gasses the fat bellied crimpson beast, before the next sunset.  Battle shall be changed, a new order established, before the wide eyes of swift and strong onlookers, who shall pledge unto King Chizik their enlistment.  And the red headed marksman, Boy Elroy, shall be swallowed up in the cyclone of assault, dazed and disoriented in his aim.  And on this field of Running Back U shall the heismanly dream of Ingram die.

And lying in pancaked posture shall WhooLeeOh not rise again, and the Ramuh-Jamuh be silenced.  And as the orange sun doth set against the deep blue November sky shall the People of the Red Overall in horror flee, and limp tails tucked into the jaws of the Gator.  And somewhere in the land of double wides, shall redneck Ricky rant, and rant, and rant.  And thousands of toothless trailer dwellers shall hurl themselves into the raging river, their visions of thirteen dashed.

And Lo, the mirth and merriment shall commence, and the Corner of Toomer be stormed, and shall the streets be solid white.  And shall victory grog be swilled, cheer-wenches yell, and dance-maidens dance.

Amen.

Manly Tiger

Auburn Tigers    27     Unibursity of SaBear  24